Tuesday, February 23, 2016

88th Academy Awards

Final Predictions - Brian Goegan

Here are my final odds for all 21 feature film categories. While I have not figured out a way to model the short film categories, my guesses are World of Tomorrow (animated), A Girl in the River (documentary), and Day One (live action). If you add up the odds for all of the "predicted winners", that is, for all of the nominees with the highest odds of winning in their category, it says we should expect the model to get about 16 of the 21 categories right. 

Best Picture
Bridge of Spies 0.03%
Brooklyn 0.00%
Mad Max: Fury Road 0.02%
Room 0.01%
Spotlight 34.00%
The Big Short 0.44%
The Martian 0.00%
The Revenant 65.50%

Best Director
The Big Short 3.46%
Mad Max: Fury Road 13.12%
The Revenant 82.93%
Room 0.00%
Spotlight 0.49%

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston 0.07%
Matt Damon 0.00%
Leonardo DiCaprio 99.84%
Michael Fassbender 0.08%
Eddie Redmayne 0.01%

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett 0.01%
Brie Larson 99.94%
Jennifer Lawrence 0.00%
Charlotte Rampling 0.00%
Saoirse Ronan 0.05%

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale 9.37%
Tom Hardy 3.08%
Mark Ruffalo 17.92%
Mark Rylance 23.90%
Sylvester Stallone 45.72%

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh 0.73%
Rooney Mara 2.23%
Rachel McAdams 5.34%
Alicia Vikander 49.36%
Kate Winslet 42.34%

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies 0.00%
Ex Machina 0.00%
Inside Out 0.00%
Spotlight 100.00%
Straight Outta Compton 0.00%

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short 67.51%
Brooklyn 3.66%
Carol 1.16%
The Martian 8.15%
Room 19.52%

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa 0.00%
Boy & the World 0.00%
Inside Out 100.00%
Shaun the Sheep Movie 0.00%
When Marnie Was There 0.00%

Best Foreign-Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent 3.82%
Mustang 3.82%
Son of Saul 84.72%
Theeb 3.82%
A War  3.82%

Best Cinematography
Carol 0.51%
The Hateful Eight 0.11%
Mad Max: Fury Road 14.24%
The Revenant 82.96%
Sicario 2.17%

Best Editing
The Big Short 1.84%
Mad Max: Fury Road 85.33%
The Revenant 12.13%
Spotlight 0.02%
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 0.68%

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies 0.66%
The Danish Girl 0.21%
Mad Max: Fury Road 83.29%
The Martian 6.63%
The Revenant 9.20%

Best Costumes
Carol 0.26%
Cinderella 0.26%
The Danish Girl 1.63%
Mad Max: Fury Road 97.57%
The Revenant 0.29%

Best Makeup
The 100-Year-Old Man… 4.98%
Mad Max: Fury Road 87.54%
The Revenant 7.47%

Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies 8.65%
Carol 30.21%
The Hateful Eight 52.10%
Sicario 3.75%
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 5.30%

Best Original Song
"Earned It" 5.67%
"Manta Ray" 5.67%
"Simple Song #3" 5.67%
"Til It Happens To You" 26.94%
"Writing's On the Wall" 56.05%

Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies 6.16%
Mad Max: Fury Road 36.10%
The Martian 0.07%
The Revenant 53.71%
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3.95%

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road 6.55%
The Martian 4.77%
The Revenant 80.33%
Sicario 0.36%
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 7.99%

Best Special Visual Effects
Ex Machina 0.00%
Mad Max: Fury Road 50.10%
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 0.00%
The Martian 0.00%
The Revenant 49.90%

Best Documentary Feature
Amy 99.74%
Cartel Land 0.18%
The Look of Silence 0.01%
What Happened, Miss Simone? 0.04%
Winter on Fire 0.03%

Number of Predicted Oscars by Film
Here I am just adding up the odds for each specific film across all the categories in which it is nominated. This forms a make-shift guess at how many Oscars total each film will walk away with. 

The Revenant 5.473
Mad Max: Fury Road 4.739
Spotlight 1.578
Room 1.195
Inside Out 1.000
Amy 0.997
Son of Saul 0.847
The Big Short 0.826
Spectre 0.560
The Hateful Eight 0.529
The Danish Girl 0.512
Creed 0.457
Steve Jobs 0.424
Bridge of Spies 0.394
Carol 0.344
The Hunting Ground 0.269
The Martian 0.196
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 0.179
Sicario 0.063
Fifty Shades of Grey 0.057
Racing Extinction  0.057
Youth 0.057
The 100-Year-Old Man… 0.050
All others below 0.05

If you like my work here and want to see more, go ahead an follow the blog. It is an old one put together my myself and a few friends that I'm dusting off. I'll try to make posts from time to time, mostly data-driven analysis of movies. I'll also put up a postmortem after the awards looking back at how the model did.